‘Communities don’t trust each other…weapons are flooding in…for peace in Manipur, first seal Indo-Myanmar border’

The Manipur conflict has dragged on for more than a year now. There are basically three factors – the mistrust between the two communities still exists, and there is complete polarisation on ethnic lines, which has now spread to govt officials, including the police as well. The second factor is the easy availability of weapons and other war-like stores. What we have seen recently is technological advancement, weaponisation of drones and other things. And the third thing is a sustained misinformation and disinformation campaign, which is being carried out by all stakeholders through social media. So, unless these three basic factors are addressed, the violence will continue.Despite the huge deployment of central security forces, the situation remains as it was one year back.I agree there is a presence of security forces, but the configuration of the terrain is such that every inch of ground cannot be protected. The other problem is the polarisation of Manipur Police, which is a challenge, though a lot of improvement has taken place since the beginning. Because, in any state where central forces get deployed, they are in aid of state authorities and so they are dependent on state police for a lot of intelligence and other related support. This polarisation probably is inhibiting the functioning of central forces. But yes, the major problem remains because of terrain configuration.Also, almost the entire society on both sides has got militarised. The weapons are out in the open.About five to six thousand weapons were looted from police stations, which are still available. In addition to that, because of the instability in Myanmar and the porous Indo-Myanmar border, there is a lot of influx of weapons from Myanmar.Is there involvement of insurgents?Right from the beginning we have seen insurgents belonging to both communities getting involved. There were reports of some of the valley-based insurgent groups who came in from Myanmar camps and took part in some of the violent activities. Kuki SoO groups have also been involved. In the recent incident in Jiribam, we are aware that out of the six people killed, two were civilians, three were part of Kuki group and one was of UNLF-Pambei group, which is a Meitei group.What has been the response of civil society organisations?Civil societies on both sides are primarily guiding the narrative wherein they are propagating what their community wants, and what sort of solution they want. We know Kukis are asking for a separate administration for them and Meiteis are saying they will not allow any threat to the territorial integrity of Manipur. So, while civil societies of both communities are trying to propagate their own ideas and narratives, they are also very, very reluctant, I found, to engage with the other community.The latest clamour is for control of unified headquarters.In 1997, the unified headquarters were formed in Manipur. That time, the strategic group used to be headed by the chief secretary. But in 2004 there was a change, and the strategic group was headed by the CM. However, in the 2023 notification, because of the peculiar problem that erupted after May 3, the state was advised to employ a security adviser and he was made the chairman of the combined headquarters. But then in one of the paragraphs of the notification, it says that the CM can call for a meeting whenever he wants and then he chairs the meeting. So my interpretation is that, de facto, the authority remains with the CM and obviously, he retains that requisite control over the unified headquarters. And law and order, as per the Constitution, remains a state subject. So, the CM has that obligation to fulfil that constitutional duty of looking at law and order, through the security adviser or the chief secretary and DGP. All are part of the combined headquarters and the unified headquarters. What are the possible solutions here?First is immediate control of violence. For that we need to take some strong military action, sealing the Indo-Myanmar border completely so that weapon smuggling doesn’t take place. There has to be domination of the internal areas within the valley to deter movement of armed miscreants. Intelligence-based operations need to be launched to recover weapons and war-like stores. The second thing is confidence building through a process of engagement with both communities to break the mistrust. Their specific grievances must be addressed earnestly. Within this, I also would recommend formation of a peace and reconciliation commission, which needs to have neutral members acceptable to both communities.Alongside, there are a lot of inquiry commissions that were instituted after the conflict broke out and some cases were taken over by CBI. These all must see closure so that people understand the genuineness of the central govt. And of course, compensation for people who have lost so much.I think all sections of society need to get involved in engaging both communities. It’s not only a political dialogue. I think civil societies from outside the state, media and others also need to engage.