Is Modi 3.0 all about legacy?

The third term of the Union government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has completed 100 days in office. The one particular message that this new term has carefully and rather purposefully constructed is that of continuity. It generates an impression that the second term has seamlessly flown into the third. The river has gently turned another bend and continues to flow with its usual majesty.The general perception, however, is the numbers have significantly altered the composition and stability of the government, if not its immediate and overall orientation. Modi 3.0 is unlike any other coalition government that India has witnessed in the past because of how the numbers are stacked on either side.Also, in terms of top leadership, the personal popularity of Modi is still very high. If one were to use the polls conducted in June by a national magazine as an indicator, it may not be at its staggering August 2019 level of 71%, but is formidable at 49.1%, double than that of his nearest rival — Rahul Gandhi.This makes it difficult for a viable alternative to prop up in the near future, until the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) itself, deliberately or desperately, threatens the established power equilibrium of the last decade.At least at this point, the stability aspect is at the very centre of Modi 3.0 because it appears the BJP has been unable to pick a new national president. The term of the existing president, JP Nadda, has long ended. Nadda was inducted into the Union government with a certainty that there will be a new one in his place soon. But it appears unanimity over his replacement has eluded the party.BJP leaders in the government and those who ideologically claim to govern them in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) are apparently negotiating hard to push their preferences. Either side seems unwilling to concede even after two long sittings. This is a small indication that the person who will emerge to head the party will have a role to play in the stability of Modi 3.0. That means, his or her docility or proactiveness will make a difference.The statement that Nadda made on the RSS, right in the middle of the election process in May, was subjected to endless analysis. He had said that the BJP does not need the RSS to run itself anymore. Retrospectively, one could argue that this was made because there were whispers that the RSS was less than enthusiastic to mobilise support for Modi 3.0. medium nocaptionhttps://youtu.be/2xhdVlYMfCQ?si=AtmKghxugWMc5t87Nadda’s statement came as a caveat for the results to come later. While the BJP fell short of a majority, the 240 seats obtained were understood as those that accrued exclusively to brand Modi. Therefore, it can be interpreted that the BJP leadership now wants to rely less on the RSS to pick its president. Modi, in his third term, has less to lose than the RSS being seen as unable to influence the choices of the BJP on the eve of its centenary year.It may, however, be erroneous to assume here that the RSS is a monolith. After all, Modi and Nadda have also been RSS men. If Modi 3.0 succeeds in staring down the RSS, then it may to an extent puncture the liberal prejudice against him.But there is a complication here that has found sufficient play in the media. Union minister Nitin Gadkari has been cajoled by the Opposition as a man better acceptable than Modi. Gadkari himself has kept this balloon afloat by saying he was offered support to be prime minister, but his wish was not to be one. A few days ago, he even said that a leader has to tolerate dissent. He was trying to play by the liberal playbook.It is paradoxical that the Opposition led by Rahul, which intends to dismantle the RSS ideology, supports a man who has created the impression of being the RSS’ singular leadership choice.When push comes to shove in Modi 3.0, it is on this aspect Modi could likely build his victimhood — that the liberal Opposition joined hands with the conservative RSS in an unprincipled shake of hands to corner him. He could even say this happened because the Congress dynasty personally hated him.As early as February 2019, Rahul had said that Gadkari was the only one with “some guts” in the BJP. Gadkari has also not run down Rahul like other BJP leaders. Even during Rahul’s padayatra, Gadkari was careful with his words.Gadkari may never be an alternative to Modi inside the BJP, but there is sufficient discomfort created by him or through him, which may have to do with the RSS and the Opposition’s way of creating a power balance. medium nocaptionhttps://youtu.be/ChRf0nz4--Y?si=8EQ4_8J9XRR_ja4UIn the backdrop of these questions that surround the Modi regime’s stability, comes the larger question of what is, or what could be Modi’s legacy? Does he already have one or is it still in the making? Now that he is in his third term, and recently turned 74, that is a legitimate question to ask.It may be a separate question as to who, and how, one measures legacy when times and contexts change, and power changes hands too over the course of history. What looks insignificant today may be restored a generation or two away as a turning point and a visionary insight that propelled change. So, it may be best left to future historians, but one cannot resist speculating with a contemporary sense.Applying the priorities of a myopic present, the top of the mind recall among the majority population is Modi’s ideological stridency — the building of the Ayodhya temple, the reading down of Article 370, triple talaq, the development of Hindu faith centres, the resurrection of civilisational pride, etc. In the current term, the Uniform Civil Code and the legislation on Wakf property may get added.But this ideological agenda of fostering a Hindu majoritarian instinct is a shared legacy for Modi. It is not exclusive to him. It was conceived before him, and he happened to be its grand implementer, which has led to his admirers fantasising about the return of “the golden age”. Can the fact that he served his faith loyally be his legacy?When it comes to economic agenda, the growth story of India will again be seen as efficient or super-efficient continuity. It is a shared legacy too. If this is a firm legacy of somebody, it would be of PV Narasimha Rao. The Congress that does not exactly like Rao may cleverly stake claim to it, as it has already done, through Manmohan Singh.Modi may still be able to take credit for the massive infrastructure investments he has made in various sectors and his enormous interest in technology. The banking sector reforms and the digitalisation of payments may come to be seen as his very special intervention. India under him has, after all, become a country of digital identities, smartphones and QR codes.What he does in the third term to create more jobs, and make India a manufacturing hub, and reduce massive inequalities of wealth may accommodate him in history. medium nocaptionhttps://youtu.be/dq1wE6uJ1dA?si=pERPD8mAE1kLoNDzForeign policy again is at best a response to complex global circumstances with an unmissing eye on self-interest. Its impressions are that of a feet made on sand. Even Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi operated in Cold War circumstances and had to negotiate a very confusing terrain.Of late, Modi has been trying to be peacemaker between Russia and Ukraine, but will it yield results and carve a legacy is literally a billion-dollar question. His muscular Pakistan policy means little now because Pakistan looks like a failed state. China has been unrelenting though, and there are signals of hostility in the rest of the neighbourhood.In terms of governance, the new Parliament building will be a physical marker of Modi’s presence for many decades to come, like the women’s reservation legislation is a paradigm shift, but this too had made its long journey. The one nation, one election idea will be tested in the next few months and the regime’s response to the demand of a caste census will be crucial.The delimitation of parliamentary constituencies will also figure in Modi 3.0. This has the potential to create a dangerous divide between states and impact the very nature of our democracy. How Modi will handle it will count for his acumen. One wonders if there will be a second States Reorganisation Commission to see if India’s cultural borders have shifted or deepened. That would be a radical agenda to accompany delimitation.Modi 3.0 will also push the inevitable question as to who after him will preside over India. Like it was asked about Nehru in his third term. Nehru, like Modi, was also 74 when this question came up. Journalist Welles Hangen even wrote a book titled After Nehru, Who? in 1963. Modi and Nehru’s circumstances may be altogether different, but still it is a valid political question.Anyway, statistics, economics, policy and governance can build a certain legacy, but emotion implanted in the collective memory of the people will be an altogether different one. That is about waiting for the future.Lead image: Uday DebRead more from the author here.