Uncertainty prevails as J&K heads to first assembly poll in a decade

The last assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir threw up a surprise when the unlikely coalition of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power. Nearly 10 years later, the region will elect 90 representatives to an assembly to administer a region that has seen massive changes since the last election.A changed landscape The last state government elected in 2014 collapsed mid-term after the BJP exited the alliance. On August 5, 2019 the special status of J&K was revoked and it was split into two Union territories - Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. Then a delimitation process in 2022 expanded the Assembly to 114 seats from 87 for the combined region of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh. Of the 114 seats, 24 are reserved for Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Gilgit-Baltistan. In this election, 90 legislators will be elected where 43 will represent constituencies in Jammu region while 47 will represent those in Kashmir. Six of the seven additional seats introduced after delimitation are for the Jammu region, increasing its representation in the assembly.This will be the first election in which there will be an implementation of Scheduled Tribes quota in assembly seats. Nine seats have been reserved, and six are in the Jammu region. The incoming assembly will have limited powers much like other Union territories. While elected representatives in the assembly can pass laws, they are subject to the approval of the Lieutenant Governor. Former chief ministers Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti have questioned the limits on the powers of the chief minister elected through such a process. The Union government has maintained that the region will have statehood restored after the elections, but there’s little clarity on the timeframe.“I have said that after the assembly elections we will restore statehood at the appropriate time,” home minister Amit Shah said at a BJP rally. https://youtu.be/GB_o_fR3YpQThe legacies in the frayJammu and Kashmir has mostly been governed by parties led by families since 1947, most prominent of which is the National Conference. Omar Abdullah, vice president of the NC, maintained for years after 2019 that he wouldn’t contest the assembly elections given the limitations on its powers. However, months after a shock loss in the Lok Sabha elections, he is contesting from two seats in Kashmir. The NC is in a pre-poll alliance with the Congress for this election, with the state party contesting 51 seats and the Congress contesting 32 seats. Some seats will see “a friendly contest” between the two parties and some seats have been left for smaller allies.This alliance is the first time the parties are collaborating in the region since the controversial 1987 assembly elections. In 1987, the NC (led by Farooq Abdullah) and the Congress (led by Rajiv Gandhi) allied to form a state government that lasted just three of its five-year term. It was also one of the most controversial elections in the state that is said to have fuelled militancy in the state in the 1990s. Campaigning for the party, party president Farooq Abdullah has vowed to fight for the return of special status to Kashmir. He has promised to appeal against the Supreme Court’s earlier verdict permitting the abrogation of the special status. The PDP, which won the most seats in the 2014 elections, is believed to be at its lowest going into this election and that’s according to Iltija Mufti, the daughter of former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti. The third generation of the Mufti family, who is making her debut in this election, told PTI that it is a turbulent time not just for the state but the party as well. “We are probably at our lowest point right now. To be honest, for me, it is about saving a lot of things," she said.Both parties are appealing for votes promising to restore the region’s statehood and special status. However, for the PDP, a big problem in perception is the alliance with the BJP after the last state election. medium nocaption113430138Expect a bigger turnout Turnouts in Jammu and Kashmir elections were said to have been influenced by separatist groups boycotting the polls, and consistently stayed low for decades. The highest turnout was in the 1987 state polls, which saw widespread rigging of results.However, the voter turnout in the Srinagar seat during the recently-conducted national election was at a four-decade high of 38.5%. It’s believed that could be mirrored or bettered in the upcoming election due to multiple factors. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Prominent figures associated with the separatist movement have either died or been imprisoned. Some associated with separatist groups are contesting this election, which has been welcomed by multiple political leaders. Take for example, independent candidates backed by the banned religious group Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) entering the fray in seven of the 90 assembly seats. The Jamaat last took part in the election process in 1987. At the time, as part of the Muslim United Front, it emerged as a major alternative to the NC-Congress alliance. However, Jamaatʼs candidates lost by narrow margins in several constituencies and questions raised over irregularities were never investigated. Another striking feature of this election is the rise in the number of independent candidates. Over 40% of the 908 candidates are independents, the second-highest number of independents in the region's history. On an average, there are five Independent candidates for each of the 47 seats in Kashmir. This number drops to 2.93 per constituency in the Jammu division. Parties like the National Conference, Congress, and PDP have alleged that many of these independent candidates are backed by the BJP in an effort to split the vote."Delhi is not trying to silence any politician in Jammu and Kashmir, especially in Kashmir, as much as they are trying to do with Omar Abdullah," Omar said on the campaign trail.TOI Podcast: Why J&K election is crucialCould BJP and smaller parties be kingmakers?The Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) is one of the keenly watched state parties in this election after its chief and Lok Sabha MP Engineer Rashid beat Omar Abdullah in the Lok Sabha election. The party is also in a strategic alliance with the Jamaat. Among the other regional parties that will be watched is the People's Conference (PC), founded by Abdul Ghani Lone five decades ago and now led by his son Sajjad. Sajjad was a minister in the PDP-BJP government. Then there’s the Apni Party, founded by former minister Altaf Bukhari after the abrogation of Article 370. However, both parties are expected to suffer in Kashmir due to their perceived proximity to the BJP. The BJP - which did not field any candidates during the Lok Sabha elections in Kashmir - is banking on its clout in the Jammu region in this election given it has few candidates in Kashmir. The party won two of the seats it contested in Jammu in the Lok Sabha elections. The party, which has allied with the NC and the PDP to form a state government in the past, will need an alliance if it is to come to power in the Union territory. However, given the party saw protests and departures over its choice of candidates, it’s unclear how it will perform even in its stronghold of Jammu.