Dilemma for Netanyahu, Nasrallah

Israel’s escalation strategy in this war — on Friday evening, Indian time, Israeli air force carried out strikes in Beirut — is not about the sheer quantity of explosives dropped on Lebanon, but rather about the precision of intelligence and the willingness to carry out pinpoint, lethal operations. This was evident in the elimination of Hezbollah’s chief of staff Shukr, in the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran, and in the destruction of pagers, communication devices, and the targeting of other Hezbollah officials hiding in Beirut’s Dahiya district. In the early months of the war, Israel avoided striking high-ranking Hezbollah leaders, but in recent weeks, that restraint has become irrelevant. Even as these words are being written, officials in the Tel Aviv war room are awaiting updated intelligence on another Israeli airstrike in Dahiya — this time, it appears, aimed at taking out Nasrallah’s head of operations. Israel’s focus has shifted. Rather than indiscriminate bombardment, the emphasis is now on decapitating the leadership of Hezbollah, a shift that signals the changing dynamics of the conflict. And as long as the intelligence remains sharp, these strikes will continue to undermine Hezbollah’s operational capabilities.This conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has evolved into one of the most bizarre hostilities on the planet today. For the past 11 months, the two sides have been pummelling each other with every possible means — launching missiles, dropping bombs, deploying drones, engaging in intelligence operations that seem straight out of a James Bond film (mostly Israel).Every few days or weeks, almost as if following a scripted plot, someone declares a “red line” has been crossed, threatening an unprecedented, earth-shattering retaliation that will be remembered for generations. Then, after a few days of heightened tension, the “revenge” is carried out. The parties accept the outcome and return to battering one another exactly as they did before the supposed red line was crossed. From all the evidence accumulated over these 11 months of skirmishing, it’s clear that neither Hezbollah nor Israel truly wants to escalate into a full-scale war.This war of attrition, which has displaced tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes in the north and emptied villages in southern Lebanon, seemed until recently to be an acceptable status quo for both sides.Both recognise that their clash is inevitable, but neither side desires it. Each side, for its domestic audience, has spun a narrative: Hezbollah clings to its resistance as long as Israel operates in Gaza, while Israel broadcasts its focus on Gaza, signalling that it would prefer not to open a second front in the north.However, this charade appears to be reaching its limit. In the past week and a half, Israel has begun to shift course — both in rhetoric and action. While the war in Gaza nears its conclusion, with or without an official declaration, the threats of a northern war have grown increasingly tangible.This week, Israel revealed — without explicitly admitting it — some of its most extraordinary capabilities, simultaneously neutralising thousands of pagers and communication devices used by Hezbollah operatives. Though Israeli officials declined to comment on this remarkable operation, they see it as having restored Israel’s intelligence services to their rightful place among the world’s best. Hezbollah’s secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah was forced to deliver a lengthy, dramatic speech filled with threats and curses, once again accusing Israel of crossing red lines.Just days ago, Israel’s war cabinet defined a new objective, one that had not been part of the initial goals of Operation “Iron Swords”: to return tens of thousands of Israelis to their homes in the north. To achieve this, Israel knows it must push Hezbollah back from the border.No Israeli will return home after Oct 7 knowing that mere metres from their doorstep, Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces are lurking. That reality is simply untenable. UN Security Council Resolution 1701, passed after the 2006 Lebanon War, has eroded over time, allowing Hezbollah’s terrorist forces to establish themselves along Israel’s northern border, just metres from the comfortable homes of Israeli citizens. For many years, this arrangement was a modus vivendi that Israelis could live with. After Oct 7, however, this will no longer be tolerated.Thus, Israel must achieve a decisive outcome — whether through diplomatic channels or by unleashing its formidable firepower. Yet, unlike Gaza, Hezbollah presents an entirely different challenge: more painful, more threatening, more heavily armed, more determined, and far more supported by Iran.While Lebanon would burn, and Israel could potentially send the country back centuries in time, the cost to Israel would also be steep. Hezbollah has amassed more than 100,000 missiles and rockets over the years, along with drones and advanced weaponry, capable of wreaking havoc on Israeli cities — despite Israel’s exceptional air defence systems.Are we on the brink of a broader war? It remains unclear. Both Israel and Hezbollah know that neither would emerge from such a conflict unscathed. The costs would be immense. Yet Israel understands that the current threatening reality cannot continue. No sane nation would tolerate threats of this nature on its borders, and no sovereign state can exist with terrorists and missiles looming at its fence.The question now is whether Hassan Nasrallah will take the hint from Israel’s intelligence operations this week or gamble with Lebanon, his organisation, and perhaps even himself. For Israel, the question is whether its people, after 11 months of war, have the resilience to face a prolonged and unpredictable battle with an enemy that has been preparing for this very moment for decades.The writer is a columnist based in Tel Aviv.