Rains to return in Maharashtra after long break, IMD issues yellow alert across state for next few days

PUNE: Monsoon is gearing up for a comeback in Maharashtra after a long hiatus, with IMD on Saturday issuing yellow alert across the state for the next few days.
The weather bureau forecast isolated heavy rainfall for Marathwada on Sept 23 and Sept 24, while Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, and Goa have the same warning from Sept 24-27.

While IMD officials said it’s too early to comment on the likely commencement of monsoon withdrawal from Maharashtra in October, an independent forecaster from weather blog ‘Vagaries of Weather’ said, “The coming spell might delay monsoon’s farewell from the state.Monsoon may not withdraw from Pune and Mumbai before Oct 10-12.”
S D Sanap, scientist at India Meteorological Department (IMD), told TOI, “We expect rains to pick up in the state, including Pune, after Sept 23. Good rain is expected from Sept 26 because of the likely emergence of a low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal and its favourable west north westward movement.”
Moderate rain likely in Pune from Sept 23, Konkan may experience heavy showers
S D Sanap, scientist at India Meteorological Department (IMD), said the last two low-pressure systems formed in the North Bay of Bengal and tracked northwestwards, having little impact on Maharashtra. He said, “The next system is likely to develop in the west-central Bay of Bengal, and its northwestward movement could bring rainfall to state.”
An IMD update reported that an east-west shear zone with an upper air cyclonic circulation over west-central Bay of Bengal persists, along with another upper air cyclonic circulation over northern parts of Thailand and neighbourhood extending up to the mid-tropospheric levels. The latter is likely to move west-northwestwards. Under their influence, a low-pressure area is expected to form over northwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal around September 23, 2024.
Sanap said, “The extended range forecast (ERF) suggests near-normal rain in parts of the state, except Konkan, until Sept 26. The week following Sept 26 may see above-normal rainfall. While the ERF also shows above-normal rain from Oct 3-9, predictions beyond week 2 of the ERF are less reliable due to its declining forecast skills. We’ll need to wait for updated forecasts as we approach that period.”
The IMD forecast for Pune indicates light to moderate rain beginning Sept 23.
Independent forecaster Abhijit Modak said, “IMD has indicated favourable conditions for Southwest Monsoon withdrawal from parts of West Rajasthan and Kachchh around Sept 23. A high-pressure system may thus develop there, potentially directing the upcoming low-pressure area towards Maharashtra, increasing rainfall here. Thundershowers have already been reported in Marathwada, east Pune district, and Ahmednagar. Heavy rain is likely in the ghats of Madhya Maharashtra and Konkan from Sept 26-28. The period from Sept 24 to 27 may be particularly rainy.”