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US Presidential Election 2024: Why 7 states can help you rule USA

US Presidential Election 2024: Why 7 states can help you rule USA

Nirmalya Dutta / TIMESOFINDIA.COM / Updated: Sep 24, 2024, 22:25 IST

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The number seven is symbolic in literature and culture, from Voldemort’s seven Horcruxes in Harry Potter to seven pivotal US swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states play a crucial role in determining presidential election outcomes, as winning them can secure a candidate's victory despite losing the popular vote. Biden’s narrow wins in some of these states flipped the 2020 election, but Trump is regaining ground, with polls showing a tight race. Key issues like immigration, the economy, and abortion drive voter sentiment. As Trump and Harris battle for dominance, all bets are off.

US Presidential Election 2024: Why 7 states can help you rule USA

In the Harry Potter universe – whose creator is now defined by her gender-bender takes – the number seven is pivotal. That’s why Lord Voldemort decided to create seven Horcruxes that would have made him immortal, if his sidekick hadn’t fancied the mother of a scrawny git. Seven is a number that frequently recurs in fiction and non-fiction. There are seven kingdoms in Game of Thrones, seven colours in the rainbow, seven musical notes (svars), and the number seven graces the backs of iconic sportsmen like MS Dhoni and Eric Cantona.
The number seven is equally significant in US elections, where seven swing states can determine the outcome. While swing states may change, for the purposes of this piece, the seven are: Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10).
A candidate needs a majority while battling for 538 electoral college votes. Regardless of the margin of victory, whoever wins a state takes the full electoral college vote count. For example, in Arizona in 2020, Joe Biden won by just 10,457 votes but secured all 11 electoral college votes from the state. It’s possible to win more votes overall, as Clinton did in 2016, and still receive fewer electoral college votes. As NPR’s Domenico Montanaro noted, “44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin” separated Trump and Biden from a tie in the electoral college. Hillary Clinton famously won the popular vote in 2016 but lost in the electoral college.

Essentially, these seven states could decide the fate of the realm.

Since 1988, 20 states and Washington, DC have consistently voted for the same party in every presidential election, with only a few seeing close battles. Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016 was due to his ability to swing several key states that had previously voted for Democrats, earning him 304 electoral votes to Hillary's 227. Meanwhile, Biden’s ability to reclaim some of these states was crucial to his victory, where he defeated Trump 306-232.

Now a disclaimer: given the unprecedented nature of this election – with a candidate shoehorned in at the last moment after her predecessor lost his bearings, and a former POTUS who has survived two assassination attempts – all bets are off.

With fluctuating polls, any state with less than a 5% gap could be in play. A recent NYT-Sienna College poll suggested Trump’s fortunes were looking up in the so-called Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. However, these polls were taken before the revelations about Trump’s ‘black Nazi’ Mark Robinson’s candid thoughts on a porn forum, which could reverse Trump’s gains in North Carolina.
Here's a quick look at each key state:

Arizona: Biden's narrow win in 2020 is complicated by immigration and abortion being dominant issues. Harris, the Schrodinger's ‘Border Czar,’ is visiting the state today – her first trip since becoming the Democratic nominee. It could be a sticky wicket for the Dems.
Georgia: Trump faced legal battles over “election interference” here, but the state is crucial. African-American voters backed Biden in 2020, and Harris hopes they’ll support her as well.
Michigan: The state’s significant Arab-American population is unhappy with Biden’s Middle East policy. Recently, the mayor of Hamtramck, the only city with an all-Muslim government, endorsed Donald Trump.
Nevada: Though the state has voted Democrat since 2008, it’s still considered a swing state despite offering only six electoral votes. The economy and immigration issues make it a battleground for both candidates.
North Carolina: The state has been in the news for its lieutenant governor’s controversial comments on a black porn forum, raising concerns that Mark Robinson could jeopardise Trump’s chances. Robinson, heavily backed by Trump for governor, was ignored when Trump recently visited the state.
Pennsylvania: Trump is known for his successes here. Democrats had won this state since 1992 until Trump flipped it in 2016. He also survived an assassination attempt, effectively ending Biden’s bid for a second term.
Wisconsin: Harris has a slight edge over Trump, but the economy, healthcare, abortion, and crime could create challenges. She leads for now, but can she maintain it?

Overall, Trump and Harris are neck-and-neck in several polls. According to 538, Harris is nationally leading by 2.7 BPS. In the Game of Thrones, to sit on the Iron Throne, you had to wade through eight seasons of incest, bloodletting, politically chicanery and lots of speeches. It was a rather messy affair at times. Hopefully, it won't get that messy on November 5.