The 140-seat assembly is scheduled to go to polls in a single-phase starting from April 6, 2021.
Kerala is currently ruled by the Left Democratic Front (LDF) which is an 11-party alliance. The largest parties of LDF are the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Communist Party of India, namely CPM and CPI.
In the opposition sits, the United Democratic Front (UDF) an eight-party alliance which is led by the Indian National Congress (INC). Power in Kerala has a pattern of alternating between the two major alliances LDF and UDF. In the 2016 assembly elections, LDF led by chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan registered a surprise victory defeating Congress and allies.
In 2016, CPM won 58 seats while CPI won 19, an increase from their 2011 assembly elections tally of 45 and 13 seats, respectively. In 2016, BJP won one seat in Kerala opening its account in the state.
Even though CPM and CPI increased their tallies between the 2016 and 2011 assembly elections, their vote share decreased. In 2016, CPM and CPI’s vote share was 26.5% and 8.1% respectively lower than 28.2% (CPM) and 8.7% (CPI) in 2011.
On the other hand, BJP’s vote share has consistently increased. In 2011, BJP’s vote share was 6% which increased to 10% in 2016. Even as Congress struggles to settle internal equations, it is still the main challenger to the BJP which now a larger presence than ever before. Since Rahul Gandhi’s relocation from Amethi, Kerala is now ever more important for Congress.
Meanwhile, for ruling CPM, retaining Kerala is crucial after sliding to the third position in West Bengal. After Bihar, West Bengal, along with Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry, would be holding elections under the shadow of the coronavirus pandemic. The Election Commission of India has released a series of Covid guidelines for the poll process. Door-to-door campaigning has been restricted to five people. The roadshows too have been restricted to a maximum of five vehicles. All the election officials will be vaccinated beforehand. The timing of the voting has been extended by an hour to accommodate the delay caused by Covid-19 guidelines. Kerala Election Schedule 2021